A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
